10 Things You Need To Know Before The Opening Bell, June 17, 2014

10 Things Before Opening Bell

June 17, 2014

Good morning! Here's what you need to know:

275 To Iraq. On Monday evening, President Barack Obama sent a letter to Speaker of the House John Boehner saying he would be sending 275 U.S. troops to Iraq to "provide support and security for U.S. personnel and the U.S. Embassy in Baghdad" in the wake of violence and political turmoil triggered by the jihadist group Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant (ISIS).

The Nightmare Scenario For Oil. Energy analysts warn that if ISIS advances toward the southern Iraqi oil fields, we could see a major supply disruption that could send energy prices surging. Here's Societe Generale analyst Michael Wittner: "Prices went up last week because of the fear and possibility of a much larger volume of crude produced in the southern Iraqi oil fields and exported through the Basrah port complex. Exports of Basrah crude have been in the 2.5-2.6 Mb/d range in recent months, and that is what is at risk. This volume of crude is greater than Saudi Arabia's spare capacity, which we currently estimate at 1.75 Mb/d (9.75 Mb/d of crude output in May vs. capacity of 11.5 Mb/d available within 30 days)."

Argentina Says It's A Victim Of Extortion. "Argentina will fulfill its obligations and it will not default on its restructured debt," said Argentine President Cristina Fernandez after the U.S. Supreme Court declined to hear her country's appeal that it shouldn't have to pay a consortium of hedge funds billions in debt. However, she continued to reiterate her disapproval of the hedge funds' demands. "Argentina has shown it is willing to negotiate, but it does not have to submit itself to such extortion," she said.

Prices Cool In The UK. UK consumer prices climbed 1.5%, slowing from 1.8% the month prior. From UK's Office of National Statistics: "Falls in transport services costs, notably air fares, provided the largest contribution to the decrease in the rate. Other large downward effects came from the food & non-alcoholic drinks and clothing sectors. The largest offsetting upward effects came from motor fuels and recreation & culture."

German Investor Sentiment Drops. Germany's ZEW Investors Expectations index unexpectedly fell to 29.8 in June from 33.1 in May. This also missed economists' expectations fro a 35.0 print. "We are slightly surprised by the continuing fall given positive catalysts from the ECB, lower bond yields and generally decent economic data," said Pantheon Macroeconomics' Claus Vistesen. "If recent positive data points and announcements in the eurozone are not enough to buoy investor sentiment, we dread to see what happens if the news flow changes for the worse."

Markets Are Up. Most markets around the world are in the green. In Europe, France's CAC 40 is up 0.1%, Germany's DAX is up 0.2%, Spain's IBEX is up 0.1%. Japan's Nikkei closed up 0.3%. U.S. stock market futures are modestly in the green.

Here Comes The Fed. The Federal Reserve's Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) begins its two-day monetary policy meeting today. Here's a summary of what former Fed Vice Chair Don Kohn has said about the Fed (via Potomac Research Group's Greg Valliere): "The Fed remains dovish, with a solid majority of officials in the camp that believes there's still plenty of slack in the labor market. Despite the disappointing first half economic figures, the central bankers anticipate improvement in the second half -- but not enough to alter their accommodative policies any time soon. "

US Inflation Update. At 8:30 a.m. ET, we'll get the May consumer price index report. Economists estimate CPI climbed 0.2% month-over-month or 2.0% year-over-year in May. Excluding food and energy prices, they estimate core CPI rose by 0.2% and 1.9% respectively. "The year-to-year figures have risen abruptly in recent months, but that mostly represents basis effects, as the year-ago figures were extremely soft," said Citi's Peter D'Antonio. "We don’t think there has been a sudden change in the underlying path of inflation. Note: Food prices have shot higher in the past three months. We believe this was a lagged response to the drought. Higher feed prices caused livestock owners to cull their herds, which in turn has tightened the market for meats (resulting in higher prices). In the past three months, food prices have increased by 1.5%, driven by a 4.0% jump in meat prices."

US Housing Market Update. Also at 8:30 a.m. ET, we'll get the May housing starts and building permits report. Economists estimate starts fell 3.9% in May to an annualized pace of 1.030 million units, while building permits increased 0.1% to 1.060 million. Here's Credit Suisse: "The pace of US housing starts shot 13.2% higher in April on a 39.6% leap in multifamily starts. (Single family starts edged up only 0.8% that month.) This alone would be sufficient reason to expect some giveback in May. But we note that construction hours worked slipped last month, and the NAHB housing market index edged lower, two factors that also point to a negative May reading."

GM. Late Monday afternoon, GM announced it would be recalling another 3.16 million cars with model years 2000-2014. This brings GM's total recalls since the beginning of the year to over 20 million.

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BONUS: Here's an interesting historical chart of oil prices from BP's new Statistical Review of World Energy report.

oil prices